According to PlanB, a widely followed quantitative analyst, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to experience explosive growth ahead of next year’s halving event. The 1.8 million Twitter followers of the pseudonymous quant analyst believe Bitcoin will follow a stock-to-flow (S2F) model and soar more than 588% from its current value of $29,069 to $200,000.
According to PlanB, Bitcoin is scheduled to halve in April 2024, which will cut BTC miner rewards in half, will be the catalyst for the cryptocurrency king to hit a new all-time high.
“The 2024 halving cycle will be very interesting.” Alternatively, 2022 is an outlier, and 2023 and beyond will return to the S2F model line. Alternatively, the non-linear relationship between S2F/halving and price results in diminishing returns. In my opinion, 2022 is an outlier, and the exponential growth will continue until 50% adoption. “Only time will tell.”
Traders have traditionally used the S2F model to forecast the price movements of commodities such as gold and silver. This model estimates asset performance based on the theory that prices rise when assets become scarcer.
PlanB also predicts that the value of Bitcoin will increase along with the wider use of digital assets. He believes there are only one million individual Bitcoin holders, although there are 56 million fiat millionaires worldwide.
“People who hold paper bitcoins on an exchange don’t count as sellers (they are more traders).” So when it comes to people who have real Bitcoin on-chain, there are only 3.5 million BTC addresses with more than 0.1 BTC in them… “Because many fraudsters have multiple addresses, that number might convert to 1 million fraudsters. ” 56 million fiat millionaires worldwide, 1 million Bitcoin addresses with over 1 BTC. We arrived early.”
To support Bitcoin’s growth, quant analysts point out that when liquidity is injected into the market, Bitcoin outperforms assets such as gold and stocks. “Global liquidity (particularly central bank money printing after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and (Covid 19 stimulus checks)) was a wave that lifted all ships.” However, some boats are lifted much higher!