The upcoming Litecoin halving, expected around August 1, 2023, has been attracting attention and speculation in the cryptocurrency community. In a recent interview on the YouTube series Altcoin Daily, Quant Analyst Ben Cowen shared his surprising prediction for the price of Litecoin during this momentous event.
Historically, the Litecoin halving, which halved the rewards for mining cryptocurrencies, had a notable impact on its price. Cowen highlighted a pattern observed in the previous two halves in 2015 and 2019: Litecoin tends to rise in the first half of the halving but then declines as the halving approaches.
In line with this pattern, Cowen notes that Litecoin has followed a similar trajectory in 2023, increasing in the first half of the year. However, he issued a warning based on Litecoin’s historical trends. He suggested that cryptocurrencies could potentially experience a “blow off top Wick” event, reminiscent of the 2015 and 2019 halves, followed by a fade as the halves approach.
While Litecoin may offer short-term gains, Cowen cautions against seeing it as a solid long-term investment. Compared to “blue chip” cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin has historically underperformed. The Litecoin-Bitcoin and Litecoin-Ethereum charts clearly show a downward trend over the last few years.
Nevertheless, Cowen acknowledges that Litecoin can present lucrative short-term opportunities during certain market cycles, particularly in halvings. He also highlighted Litecoin’s value proposition as a cryptocurrency that offers four times faster transactions and lower fees than Bitcoin, which could attract some investors.
When asked about his price predictions for Litecoin, Cowen is cautious. He mentioned that it could potentially reach up to $140 before the next halving. Still, he advises against chasing Litecoin at this point, given its historical tendency to exit in June or July. However, he did provide a price range for his predictions, stating that if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in five years, Litecoin could potentially be in the $500 to $1,000 range. On the other hand, if Bitcoin doesn’t reach this figure, Litecoin’s price could be much lower.
Beyond Litecoin, Cowen addresses the evolving narrative of the cryptocurrency market. Different cryptocurrencies come under the spotlight at different times, reflecting the changing dynamics of the industry. Cowen also raises the question of whether certain cryptocurrencies qualify as securities, suggesting that this narrative can play a role in driving price action.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, keeping tabs on Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies can provide valuable insight into the broader trends and dynamics at play. While Cowen’s predictions offer a valuable perspective, it is important to approach investment decisions with careful analysis and consideration of individual circumstances.